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Last updated on June 12th, 2025

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Probability Rules

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Probability is defined as a prediction of chance or likelihood of an event that will happen in the future. There are many events that may or may not occur. The probability ranges from 0 (that represents the impossibility of the event) to 1 (that represents the certainty of the event). Probability can be represented in decimals, fractions, or in percentages. There are certain properties of probability that you should keep in mind: The probability of an impossible event is null, represented by the number 0. An event's total number of possible outcomes is the probability which equals to 1. That is, suppose a, b, c, and d are the possible outcomes. The probability will be a + b + c + d = 1. There will be no probability that has negative value. Or in other words, probability never includes negative values.

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What are Probability Rules?

Probability is the chance of an event that may or may not occur. For those events, understanding the probability rules and predicting the likelihood of those events will erase the serious harms or threats that may occur in the future.

 

Such as investors in the stock market where they analyze the future outcomes of stock market rates and in weather forecasting, where they predict the weather changes and harmful events that may occur in the future, etc.
 

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What are the Rules for Probability?

There are specific rules and conditions probability follows that will help us calculate the chances of different events happening. Understanding these rules will eliminate risks in predicting future events. Let’s understand all those rules:

 

 

Addition Rule:

If an event happening is a union of two events, let’s say event A and event B. Then the probability of that event happening is represented by 

    P (A ⋃ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)

 

 

Multiplication Rule:

If there is an intersection between two other events, say A and B. Then both events occurring or the probability of those two events occurring together is represented by

    P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)

 

 

Complement Rule:

If A is an event, then the chance that the event won't happen, or that A's complement, is given by

    P (A’) = 1 – P (A)

 

 

Conditional Rule:

If we already know that event A has happened, and we want to find the probability of event B happening, we use a special rule. This rule says that:

    P (A/B) = P (A ∩ B) / P (B)
 

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Real-Life Applications

Probability is not just about numbers, or we can say that probability is not only used in mathematics. It is used in everyday life while playing games, weather forecasting, business etc. Let’s understand some real-life applications of probability. 

 

 

  • Weather forecasting uses probability rules to predict the future weather conditions of an area.

     
  • We use probability for rolling a die in board games. For example, the chance of getting a 6 is 1 out of 6. Since a die has 6 sides, its probability will be ⅙. 

     
  • In flipping a coin, probability is used. But unlike a die, its probability will always be either Heads or Tails.

     
  • Probability is also used while drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards. For example, the chance of drawing an Ace from the deck of 52 cards is 4/52, because there are 4 Aces in a deck of cards. 
     
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Common Mistakes of Probability Rules and How to Avoid Them

While learning probability, kids often make common mistakes that will lead to incorrect or faulty answers. Understanding these common mistakes will help kids to avoid them in order to build a strong foundation in probability.

Mistake 1

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Mistaking that probability can be negative values or values above 1.

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Kids might think that probability can be greater than 1, or it can also be a negative number. Remember that probability is always between 0 and 1.

Mistake 2

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Forgetting to add all the possible outcomes.

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Kids may forget or miss adding any of the outcomes from all the possible outcomes. Always check that the sum of all probabilities of an event equals 1. 
 

Mistake 3

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Confusing between addition and multiplication rule.

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Since addition rule is used when we want to find the probability of either one event or another happening (OR). Thus is called union of two events. The multiplication rule is used when we want to find the probability of both events happening together (AND). This is called intersection of two events. This can confuse kids.

Mistake 4

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Forgetting that some events are dependent on each other. 

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If an event depends on a previous one, for example, you pick a marble without putting it back, that event changes the total number of outcomes for the next event. So always teach kids to update the probability for the next event.

Mistake 5

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Thinking that past events will affect the future outcomes in an independent event.

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If events are independent, like for example in flipping a coin, the previous result won’t change the probability of the next outcome. In case of coin flipping, the probability is always 50% Heads and 50% Tails.
 

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Problem 1

Imagine a bag contains 4 red, 2 blue, and 7 green marbles. What will be the probability of picking a blue marble?

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2/13 
 

Explanation

There are 13 marbles in total in the bag. And there are 2 blue marbles out of 13 other marbles. So the probability of getting blue out of the 13 marbles will be 2/13.
 

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Problem 2

Allen rolls a fair die while playing Snake and Ladder. What is his probability of getting a number greater than 4?

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Explanation

The numbers greater than 4 on the die are 5 and 6, because there are only outcomes till 6. So the probability for Allen getting a number greater than 4 will be 2/6 or 1/3.
 

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Problem 3

A girl flips a coin twice. What is the probability of getting two heads?

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¼
 

Explanation

The possible outcomes that the girl will get are: 

 

HH, HT, TH, TT

 

Among these, only one outcome has two heads. Thus, the probability of the girl getting two heads is ¼. 
 

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Problem 4

In the game of deck of cards. What is the probability of getting a King?

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1/13
 

Explanation

In a standard deck, there are 52 cards. Among these, there are 4 Kings in a deck. So the probability of getting a King will be 4/52 or 1/13.
 

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Problem 5

A chocolate box has 5 red, 3 green and 2 blue chocolates. What is the probability of picking a red chocolate out of the box?

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Explanation

There are 5 red chocolates in the box which has a total of 10 chocolates. So the probability of getting a red chocolate is 5/10 or 2/5.
 

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FAQs

1.Can probability be greater than 1?

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2.Why is probability important in real-life?

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3.What is the difference between dependent and independent events?

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4.Can probability predict the future with certainty?

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Jaipreet Kour Wazir

About the Author

Jaipreet Kour Wazir is a data wizard with over 5 years of expertise in simplifying complex data concepts. From crunching numbers to crafting insightful visualizations, she turns raw data into compelling stories. Her journey from analytics to education ref

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Fun Fact

: She compares datasets to puzzle games—the more you play with them, the clearer the picture becomes!

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